According to the source, a U.S. federal shutdown would force the Bureau of Labor Statistics to postpone the Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls) release because BLS suspends data collection and publication during a lapse in appropriations, which is outlined in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics contingency plan. According to the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement, labor market conditions are a key input to data‑dependent policy, and traders recalibrate rate‑cut odds after the jobs report using fed funds futures, as described by CME Group’s FedWatch methodology. According to the Cboe Options Institute, uncertainty around the timing of major macro releases tends to lift implied volatility, and crypto has become sensitive to U.S. macro conditions, according to IMF research showing stronger co-movement with broader risk assets.